How often do favourites to win the Melbourne Cup? | The Islander

How often do favourites to win the Melbourne Cup?

This article is in partnership with Neds.

Every year, the Melbourne Cup throws up some unexpected results.

In any race, you might expect the favorites to rack up a decent share of the finish places. But that doesn’t always happen at the ‘race that stops the nation’.

Over its 150-year history, the Cup has thrown up numerous shocks and upsets. So how often do favorites win? Let’s take a look at some of the stats.

Which horses are considered favorites?

Every year, the Melbourne Cup field is full of horses that are favorites to win. The most likely favorites come from the country’s best stables and are trained by some of the world’s most celebrated horsemen.

However, there is no specific formula for determining which horses are favorites at the Cup. Typically, you can expect most of your favorite horses to be trained in England or Ireland.

Australia’s best rarely travel to compete in this race (although they often win it). This is because the Cup is raced over 3200m, which is a long way over the home turf.

The majority of the best stables are based in the UK, whereas the majority of Australian horses are trained over shorter-distance races.

Check out the latest Melbourne Cup betting odds.

Where are the favorites most likely to finish?

The most likely place for a favorite to finish the Cup is in the first place. However, this has happened only 25 per cent of the time over the last 25 years. In fact, the favorites have won the race less than half the time.

The most common finish for favorites is 2nd place. This has happened 38 per cent of the time over the last 25 years. Meanwhile, the third most likely finish for a favorite is 5th place, with this finish happening 18 per cent of the time.

In fact, the favorites have finished 3rd or lower in the Cup 29 per cent of the time over the last 25 years. Meanwhile, the favorites have finished outside the Top 10 in the Melbourne Cup 16 per cent of the time.

The biggest Melbourne Cup upsets

There have been a number of upsets at the Melbourne Cup over its long and storied history. Perhaps the biggest upset in the race’s history came in the 1930 edition when Red Cabbage defeated the seemingly unbeatable Sirdar.

This was Sirdar’s third consecutive attempt at the Cup, and he was heavily favored to take the race. Another significant upset came in the 2010 edition.

Takeover Target was heavily backed to win the race and had even been installed as the bookies’ favorite. However, he came in 2nd place as import Stay Put won the race.

What’s more important the horse or the race distance?

The distance of the Melbourne Cup has often been the subject of much debate. However, there is no doubt that the distance of the race is important. It’s easy to see that the majority of the favorites are trained over shorter distances.

So it should be no surprise that favorites have won the Cup less often in recent years, as the distance has increased. Whilst there is no perfect formula, it’s easy to see that the favorites are most likely to win the Cup when the distance is between 2400-2800m.

This is because the majority of the favorites are trained over shorter distances. When the distance is shorter, favorites are more likely to win. When the distance is longer, favorites are less likely to win.

How often do favorites win the Melbourne Cup?

Since 2000, the favorites have won the Cup only half the time. This is noticeably less than the long-term average. You can see from the table below that the longer the race distance, the less likely the favorites are to win.

Whilst the statistics show that the favorites win less frequently when the distance is longer, this does not mean that short-priced horses cannot win the Cup. This year’s race is a prime example.

The race is being run over 3200m for the first time in 30 years, and the favorite is the shortest-priced horse in the race. This year’s favorite is Winx. She is a super mare and has won the last 18 races she’s competed in.

She’s being given a price of $1.10 at most Australian bookmakers. This means that punters are only getting $1.10 for every $10 they bet on Winx to win the Melbourne Cup. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a favorite so short.

At the Melbourne Cup, it’s essential to look at the race distance and not just the favorites. While favorites may be the most likely to finish first, they’re also the most likely to finish last.

If you’re hoping for a big win, you’re better off with a well-bred horse that can stay the distance.

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